The demographics show Walmart’s most likely opponents are female, college grads or those with post-graduate degrees, income over $100K, suburban, politically liberal or moderate from the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic or Western US.

Walmart supporters are likely to be male, high school diploma or less, income under $35K, politically conservative, from rural areas in the South or Midwest.

The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry. Email: shepherd@tscg.biz or call 781 749 7290, ext 7121 on your industry.

Sometimes the NIMBY reaction is emotional and not rational.  We have seen projects proposed in blighted areas that would result in desperately needed investment and drastic improvements in a neighborhood that actively and vehemently opposed the project.  Fear of the unknown.

Overcoming this fear of the unknown requires some patience and one-on-one meetings with residents to build trust and relationships.  Good projects die every day because no one paid attention to the local politics.

The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry.

18% of Americans have actively supported a development project in their community. That means they have organized, called elected officials, gathered petition signatures, wrote letters or acted in some way to demonstrate support for a local project.

Active support has been trending up for the last five years.  In 2006, Americans were twice as likely to actively oppose a project as to support one.  Now the levels of opposition and support are virtually tied with those who have actively opposed at 20%.

Fear and anger are stronger motivators, and we still see hearing rooms packed with project opponents even in areas where the polling shows massive support.  These numbers are encouraging, but just because a developer has majority support, they should not assume it’s clear sailing.  It’s all about the politics, and a room full of angry constituents can negate any understanding or goodwill a developer may have.  Local officials are not likely to commit political suicide for your project.

The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry. Email: shepherd@tscg.biz or call 781 749 7290, ext 7121 on your industry.

Years ago, elected officials wanted to make an impact and be able to point to new commercial development from their term in office.  They wanted to show their constituents that they brought home the jobs and tax dollars associated with the new mall, grocery store, power plant or other large scale project.  Times have changed.

Today, the savvy and ambitious elected official knows that the passion, energy and commitment that will propel him to the next office or send him looking for other less prestigious employment is with the opponents to development.  Supporters of a new retail establishment are unlikely to give up a Tuesday night for a public hearing.  They are not that committed.  Sure they will shop there, but they do not have a real passion or commitment to make their voices heard at city hall to make sure it get approved.

The opponents, people who are worried about how this project will lower their property values, how it will impact the character of their community or how the additional traffic will lengthen their commute  are going to pack the hearing room and voice their fears and opposition.

The entire process is now skewed against development.

The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry. Email: shepherd@tscg.biz or call 781 749 7290, ext 7121 on your industry.

It should come as no surprise that the American public is cynical about our political process. The way land use decisions are made IS a political process.  Developers need to understand that they often do not have the credibility and the influence to get projects approved in the face of passionate local constituent opposition.

In fact, 67% of Americans believe that the relationship between developers and elected officials makes the process unfair.

Back room deals and “quiet” holiday season hearings are increasingly failing strategies.  Faced with a hearing room full of angry constituents, elected officials are unlikely to commit political suicide to approve an out of town developers project.

The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry. Email: shepherd@tscg.biz or call 781 749 7290, ext 7121 on your industry.

Nearly three in four Americans oppose any form of new development in their community. This level of general opposition to development has remained steady across the United States for the last five years.  It illustrates the hurdle that every developer starts with when attempting to build in the US.  It is important to remember that the Saint Index does not ask people how they feel about development in general- it asks how you feel about it in your community.  For example: many people like grocery stores and would like to have more shopping choices but they want you to build them in your neighborhood- not theirs.

While this level of opposition to local development is high, it is significantly lower than in the United Kingdom where 85% of those surveyed in 2009 oppose any new local development.

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The Saint Index is the only international survey that quantifies and studies opposition to development.  For more information on the Saint Index go to http://tscg.biz/the-saint-index or contact us directly for a briefing focusing on your industry. Email: shepherd@tscg.biz or call 781 749 7290, ext 7121

By Christopher Hopkins and Ben Kelahan,  The Saint Consulting Group

Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill used to say, “All politics is local.” Today, it’s equally true that, “All land use approvals are political.”

Americans consistently say they like affordable housing, windmill farms, new single-family homes, or new hospitals in their town (but never power plants, casinos, quarries or landfills). However, they fight when one is proposed.

“We’re not against (whichever type of project proposed),” they claim. “But this is the wrong location.” The project will worsen traffic, block views, reduce green space, increase crime, degrade the environment, lower property values, or destroy the character of their community, opponents insist.

Not long ago, few places ever said no to new development. Growth meant progress. Mines provided work where people needed jobs. Power plants delivered jobs, tax revenue and energy.

Click here for full text of article in American Coal Online.

The report, written by Jonathan Birchall in New York, finds that 68 per cent of 1,000 adults surveyed in June by Saint Consulting, which specialises in land use approval politics, said they were more likely to support projects in their home towns because of the economy – up from 59 per cent last year.

The fifth annual Saint Index found levels of potential support increased both for more popular local projects such as grocery stores and hospitals and the most unpopular, such as quarries, landfill sites and casinos.

Click here for Financial Times online story (requires registration). PDF:  FT1Aug2010.

“The ‘Not In My Back Yard’ folks have abused a flawed permitting process to block 381 energy projects, nearly 44% of which involve renewable energy,” said Kovacs. “They have organized local opposition, changed zoning laws, opposed permits, filed lawsuits, and bled projects dry of their financing. It’s like an anchor on economic growth and job creation.”

“Congress could improve the permitting process for energy projects by adopting the commonsense procedures used for transportation projects and shortening the statute of limitations in which project opponents can file suit,” added Kovacs, speaking on July 15.

For full story, click here.

Fact No 1 – The UK remains in the grip of a housing crisis.  Demand remains high (we’re dying older, kids want to move away from Mum and Dad earlier, we’re divorcing more often and immigration has grown considerably).  But supply has dwindled down to its lowest ebb since 1946 or 1923, depending on which version of history you prefer.

(Interesting note – According to a recent UK Government commissioned study, for at least the last 20 years, we have built proportionally considerably less housing than many of our nearest European neighbours, one of the results of which is that our house prices have soared.  Duh!  Go figure)

Fact No 2 – The continuing impact of the recession means that mortgage affordability remains stubbornly low.  Unless you have a lottery win this Friday or the bank of Mum and Dad coughs up your deposit, the 20-25% downpayment most banks now demand as a minimum remains out of reach for the masses.

Fact No 3 – We need millions of new homes.  The last Tory Government wanted 4.4 million by 2016.  The recently departed Labour Government’s stated target was 3 million by 2020, although its last policy utterances added up to just shy of 6 million by 2025.

So what is our shiny new Government doing about this crisis?  Here’s a list of its pronouncements to date:

Positive measures

• Local Housing Trusts – a relatively modest scheme helping local communities to build their own homes which forms an element of the Decentralisation and Localism Bill currently before Parliament — small beer

• Yet another Government initiative to bring empty homes back into use — not holding any breath on this one

• A ‘Home on the Farm’ scheme that encourages famers to convert disused farm buildings into affordable housing — not really expecting a major impact from this one either

(Its much vaunted ‘incentivisation’ scheme for local authorities, which apparently will transform all councils into aggressive supporters of residential development for some not inconsiderable shekels dangled at them by the Coalition Government, has yet to be announced but is programmed for later this month).

Negative measures

• Complete chaos in the planning system by abolishing the regional strategies (from which all housing numbers have hitherto been derived)
• Abolition of the National Housing and Planning Advisory Unit which was responsible for estimating the housing numbers needed across the UK

• Two measures in the Decentralisation and Localism Bill which will further restrict housing delivery – local referenda (whereby local residents will be able to frustrate unpopular large scale planning applications) and SSSI style protection for green space (inevitably further restricting land available for development)

• Two changes to PPS3 – the abolition of minimum residential density targets and the removal of back gardens from the definition of brownfield land (bearing in mind that 25% of housing development last year was back garden development and in the South East that often was up at the 40-50% mark)

• A reduction of £450 million to the HCA’s budget as part of the wider Government cost cutting exercise
• Funding for eco-towns has been halved

So the question is this: (a) does our new shiny Government just not understand how to tackle the housing crisis or (b) is it in political denial about it in order to appease its shire county NIMBY voters?

Prediction – Should the Coalition Government last, the housing numbers will continue to bump along the floor, as banks begin lending again over the next few years a 1980s house price inflation boom will develop and the Government will be forced to pull its head out of the policy sand after taking much criticism.

You heard it here first.

Nick Keable is vice president, UK Operations, for The Saint Consulting Group, email keable@tscg.co.uk, phone +44 207 592 7050